Blue Raiders could be a tough out in March

At 20-3, Middle Tennessee State is starting to get some national respect. The Blue Raiders got on the map earlier this season with an 86-66 road win at UCLA, and also have quality wins over Akron and Belmont. MTSU was on the verge of being nationally-ranked last week, and just about pulled it off after being tied at Vanderbilt within the last two minutes on Saturday. But the Commodores made a few more plays than MTSU and held on for an 84-77 win, and the Raiders consequently failed to crack the rankings this week.

It could be MTSU’s last loss of the regular season. The Blue Raiders should be solid favorites in their seven remaining Sun Belt Conference games, with the biggest challenge coming this Saturday in a road trip to 16-6 Denver. Undoubtedly, the Blue Raiders will be favored to win the conference tournament, but their No. 44 RPI means they’ll stand a chance of an at-large bid should that not happen.

What makes the Blue Raiders so tough? If you look at the stat sheet, not a lot stands out as far as individuals are concerned. Their leading scorer, Iowa State transfer LaRon Dendy, averages 14 points and 6.8 rebounds a night. Two other players — Marcos Knight (11.6) and J.T. Sulton (11.4) — average double-figures.

Collectively, though, MTSU is a load. Coach Kermit Davis’s team is deep, with 10 guys averaging double-figure minutes. That depth is needed, because the Blue Raiders play all-out on every possession. Ken Pomeroy ranks them 29th in defensive efficiency, and Middle’s success on that end starts with guards Bruce Massey, Knight and Raymond Cintron.

The three put on-ball pressure on opponents’ guards as few teams do. Davis calls Massey the Sun Belt’s best defender, and the point guard will often draw the opponents’ point. Knight did a very respectable job on Vanderbilt’s red-hot wing, Jeffery Taylor, on Saturday even though he gave up four inches of height. Cintron’s rep is as a shooter, but he, too, seems to enjoy playing in-your-face defense as much as his teammates.

Once the ball goes in the paint, MTSU has a pair of good shot-blockers in Dendy and Shawn Jones who can make life difficult. Middle’s interior defense isn’t as strong as its perimeter defense, but it’s still effective; Middle ranks 17th nationally in two-point percentage allowed.

Offensively, MTSU is underrated. Davis has done an exceptional job of blending four new starters into his lineup and the Blue Raiders are exceptionally cohesive and skilled in passing. MTSU shoots just shy of 50 percent from the field, and Dendy is a skilled big man with a bit of a jump shot, and the ability to score off the dribble against bigger posts. Middle is just an okay outside shooting team (36 percent from 3), but Cintron is a guy who can get hot in a hurry if unchecked. Because MTSU is so disciplined and balanced offensively, it attempts nearly one foul shot for every two from the field, which ranks the Blue Raiders seventh nationally there.

What makes MTSU go, though, is Massey. He doesn’t look to score much but shoots 48 percent when he does, and he’s got an assist-to-turnover ratio well over 2:1.

So, the question is, How far can MTSU go in postseason? The Blue Raiders will likely fall somewhere in the 10-to-13 seed range, and the fact that they play at a deliberate pace, shoot the ball well, turn opponents and limit good looks over makes them a dangerous match-up for anybody. More importantly, the Blue Raiders bring the intensity every game, so anybody having an off-night is probably going to pay with a loss.

What can stop Middle? Although it gets to the line a lot, it hits just 65 percent of its foul shots. Also, the Blue Raiders tend to overplay on the perimeter; Vanderbilt, which isn’t particularly known for guard penetration, figured out that it wasn’t going to get great looks by passing around the perimeter and therefore took the ball straight to the hole. After hitting a 3-pointer at the 14:43 mark, the Commodores scored their final 29 points all on lay-ups or free throws, as Middle just couldn’t get stops. That film will certainly circulate, and teams with quick guards who are good off the dribble could wind up being MTSU’s undoing.

I’m predicting an NCAA bid for the Blue Raiders regardless of whether they win the Sun Belt Tournament. Whether they can win a game from there depends on the opponent, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet against it.

- Chris Lee, VandySports.com

 

Atlantic Ten: Tempo Tuesday

Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City awaits

The clock is ticking. Atlantic City and the tournament are really just a little over a month away. There is just over half the schedule remaining and a few items to keep an eye on. Can UMASS, St. Bonaventure and LaSalle show they have the staying power? Should be interesting as Xavier and Temple are making their move. Don’t forget St. Louis and Dayton, should the latter find some needed defensive improvement. AC draws near but there are still questions needing an answer.

	Record	Off Eff.	Def.  Eff.	Eff. Margin
UMASS	5-2	102	96	+6
LaSalle	5-2	111	102	+9
St. Bona	5-2	105	93	+12
Temple	4-2	110	103	+7
Xavier	5-3	108	101	+7
St. Louis	4-3	103	96	+7
Dayton	4-3	114	112	+2
St. Joseph’s	3-4	101	103	-2
Duquesne	3-4	97	103	-6
Richmond	3-4	111	106	+5
Geo. Wash.	3-4	101	105	-4
Charlotte	2-5	94	102	-8
Fordham	2-5	93	116	-23
Rhode Is.	1-6	101	111	-10

The Efficiency Margin, St. Bonaventure is off to a strong start with an impressive EM of +12. The Bonnies’ two losses, at Duquesne and Xavier, are not shocking by any means. Currently they own a three game winning streak and four of their last five. This week Mark Schmidt’s club gets two demanding tests visiting St. Louis and U MASS. Stay tuned. Dayton continues to lead with the best offensive efficiency but now the second to the worst on the defensive end. Losses at St. Joseph’s and against Rhode Island saw the opposition put up 119 and 125 respective offensive efficiencies. That will not get it done, no matter how efficient your offensive machine is operating. St. Louis has an excellent defense. Rick Majerus’ Billikens allow a rather generous  50.7 eFG percentage so what is their secret? Simple, forcing the opposition into a 25.6 % turnover rate. Don’t get them all correct but we said Temple would come around defensively. The 103 efficiency is high but the last two outings saw the Fran Dunphy’s group performing more to norm, limiting Charlotte to an 85 offensive efficiency and St. Joseph’s a 94. Both, to little surprise, were victories for the Owls. Richmond does a great job caring for the ball with an Atlantic 10 leading 14.7% TO rate. On the opposite end, the Spiders do not force enough turnovers (18.9% rate for opponents) to benefit their defense. They are not shy as 31% of LaSalle’s points have come from beyond the arc. John Giannini’s Explorers are shooting a conference best 42.7% from three and show a gaudy 56.6% eFG mark.

Pace Setters: UMASS 75 possessions, Charlotte, Dayton and LaSalle 69

‘Walking it up’: George Washington 63 possessions , Richmond 64

- Ray Floriani

 

Xavier back on track in A-10

Prior to Saturday, it didn’t seem like things could get any more jumbled at the top of the A-10. But that was before league-leading Dayton lost at home to a previously winless URI team, or before preseason title contender Saint Louis was slammed by a surprising UMass squad that was picked to finish in the dregs of the conference.

Things almost got a little wilder at Halton Arena in Charlotte, as perennial contender Xavier (14-7; 5-3) barely edged a reeling Charlotte (10-10; 2-5) team that’s now lost five straight conference games after a 2-0 start. A loss could have severely hurt XU’s chances at a conference title or at-large bid, but with the 74-70 win, head coach Chris Mack thinks his Musketeers are right where they need to be.

“We talked about in the locker room that there’s nobody that’s 8-0 or 7-1 in conference, where you feel like some things have to happen for you to even be able to talk about a race,” Mack said after Xavier moved to 5-3 in A-10 play. “It’s very, very wide open at this point.”

Xavier’s win Saturday puts them half a game back of a trio of teams at the top of the league, two of which were picked to finish in the bottom half of the 14-team league. UMass, La Salle and St. Bonaventure sit at the top of the standings with 5-2 records. UMass and La Salle, picked preseason to finish 12th and 13th, have surprised, while St. Bonaventure, which struggled to a 7-5 non-conference record, seems to be rounding into form just in time.

Losing to Charlotte wouldn’t have been unheard of for the Musketeers. Xavier won the regular season conference belt a year ago with a 15-1 record. Their only loss? You guessed it, at Charlotte.

“It’s a different race than it was a year ago, and that’s ok, our goal is to win the conference,” Mack said. “We’ve got a long way — every team in this conference has a long way to go until it ends.”

With seven of the A-10′s 14 teams within just one game of first place, Mack thinks the opportunity is there for an exciting finish come March, and that the league right nowis as tough as its ever been.

“This used to be a league of have and have nots,” Mack continued. “From top to bottom, this league is as strong as its ever been. It may be a little jumbled right now because of records, but there are some good teams in this conference and we’ll see who wins the race.”

–Josh Carpenter

 

Beleaguered Gamecocks enjoy a stretch

This has been the proverbial “everything that can go wrong will go wrong” year for the South Carolina Gamecocks as early season losses to Tennessee State and Elon defined them early as a lower echelon team in the SEC, which looks like it has at least four teams that could make it to New Orleans and the Final Four in April.

Wednesday night, though, South Carolina finally caught a break when point guard Bruce Ellington made a layup with 1.3 seconds remaining to allow South Carolina to shade struggling Alabama, 56-54.  In a season where the Gamecocks have had very few answers, they ended a four game-losing streak of all double digit losses by answering every Alabama basket in the last 11 minutes of the game.

“Obviously, we have been through a lot,” commented coach Darrin Horn, who is under fire now in his fourth year in Columbia, “We have been through a really tough stretch here to start SEC play. For us to come out and show the kind of fight and resiliency that we did really for 40 minutes regardless of how we played, just the way we fought, I couldn’t be prouder of our guys.”

Alabama tied the game six times in the second half and pulled ahead by one on three occasions, but the Crimson Tide could not muster any separation and USC took advantage each time, usually on the boards or on penetration moves by Ellington.  The key was the offensive glass where USC had 19 offensive rebounds and scored 13 points off of those.  It was a flat Alabama team that had taken Kentucky to the wire on Saturday at Rupp Arena, but had nothing to use to reinvent itself on Wednesday.

“That (rebounding) is something that is a strength for this team and so that was a huge difference in the game tonight,” noted Horn, “We didn’t shoot a good percentage, but we got almost 20 more shots than they did because of our effort on the offensive glass.”

-Ken Cross

 

Da’Quan Cook Interview

On Wednesday evening, St. Bonaventure traveled to Kingston and defeated the Rams in overtime by a final score of 72 to 66. Following the game, Andrew Greene had a chance to chat with Da’Quan Cook. The two discussed the game, his play, and the upcoming schedule.

 

What ails Seton Hall?

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie visited Willard post game. Presumably with some basketball advice.

Newark, NJ – Two weeks ago there was the glow of a national ranking, a 4-1 start in Big East play and a general feel good attitude at Seton Hall. Now, a lot of the luster is off following a 55-42 defeat at the hands of Notre Dame (5-3 in conference) . The loss at the Prudential Center was the third straight for the now 4-4 (Big East)  Pirates. What is happening?

1. 1.    The two key veterans are struggling. “We need Herb (Pope) and Jordan (Theodore) to play well for us to be successful,” Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard said. Pope fouled out of the Notre Dame contest, scoring five points on 2 of 16 shooting. Theodore paced the Pirates with 11 points but had 5 turnovers, 1 assist. “They (Pope and Theodore) haven’t been playing well of late,” Willard remarked, “but I am confident they will come around.”
2. 2.    Seton Hall is getting away from what worked. The post (Notre Dame) game stat sheet showed a 26% shooting percentage from the floor. Worse and of grave concern, was the four assists on fifteen field goals.  Ball movement was lacking on Seton Hall’s part. Too many possessions ended with long jump shots against the Irish zone.  “Lately guys have been playing with a little ‘I’ in them,” Willard said. It is not a wholesale chemistry problem, just a case of as Willard noted, “we have to get back to doing all the things that made us win before.”
3. 3.    The Big East is tough. The cliché says ‘there are no nights off’’. Certainly is the case in the Big East. As Seton Hall was going down in defeat, St. John’s was upsetting West Virginia across the Hudson at Madison Square Garden. Thirty miles to the South, DePaul shocked Rutgers at the RAC. Seton Hall’s three losses have been at South Florida, Villanova and now home to a better than expected Notre Dame team. “In this league you constantly face good teams,” Willard said. “We are in a slump. We are not playing as well but I am confident we will be back.” Saturday, Louisville visits the Rock for the next challenge awaiting Seton Hall.  
4. -Ray Floriani

 

Atlantic Ten: Tempo Tuesday

The Atlantic Ten is not yet at the halfway point still, trends are being set. Dayton is a surprise while Xavier and Temple both need improvement on the defensive end. There is time and over half a season schedule left. But the clock is ticking. Again, only conference games are tabulated in the efficiency marks.

	Record	Off EFF	Def EFF	EFF Mar.
Dayton	4-1	117	109	+8
UMASS	4-1	102	98	+4
Xavier	4-2	109	100	+9
St. Louis	3-2	106	95	+11
LaSalle	3-2	108	103	+5
St. Bona	3-2	106	96	+10
Geo. Wash	3-2	102	101	+1
Duquesne	3-3	97	103	-6
Temple	2-2	106	109	-3
St. Joe’s	2-3	99	101	-2
Charlotte	2-3	94	97	-3
Richmond	2-3	108	110	-2
Fordham	1-4	92	114	-22
Rhode Is.	1-5	98	113	-15

It works. Criticize Dayton’s defensive efficiency all you want but the Flyers have won four of five, including St. Louis,  Temple and ‘holy war’ opposition Xavier as their victims. Archie Miller, despite having to deal with injuries,  is doing a ‘coach of the year’ job for the Flyers. The eFG mark is second in the A-10 at 54.2% as Dayton is hitting a conference leading 40.9% beyond the arc. Down the road, the D will have to improve as you can’t rely on just looking to outscore people. Or can you? St. Bonaventure to date is a pleasant surprise on the defensive end. That 23% turnover percentage on offense still a sore spot. In their big win over Dayton, the Bona’s TO rate was 15.6%.  What is it in the City of Brotherly Love? All three teams are in a giving and charitable mood on the defensive end. Temple’s is a surprise with their 109 efficiency. A lot of their woes center on allowing a 50.4% eFG rate to the opposition. Look for that to change. LaSalle needs defensive improvement as well but can be dangerous with an impressive offensive efficiency fueled by a conference leading 54.8 eFG percentage.

Fastest pace (possessions per game) : UMASS 75 , LaSalle 71

Slowest tempo: George Washington, Rhode Island 64

Keep an eye on…St. Louis will visit Xavier on Wednesday and UMASS this Saturday.  Two important contests for Rick Majerus’ group. Charlotte’s next two are challenging but both at home with Temple on Wednesday and Xavier visiting Saturday.

- Ray Floriani

 

Seminoles’ adjustments assert them as ACC contender

Once Michael Snaer’s buzzer-beater went through the nets and Florida State upset then-No. 4 Duke on Saturday, the questions started rolling in the postgame about where this Seminole team’s place is right now in the ACC scheme of things.

Coach Leonard Hamilton had to do a remake as he lost his two leading scorers from last season in Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen.  FSU had good chemistry to begin with, but Hamilton said Saturday that reinventing meant shifting pieces more than inventing chemitry.

“We have had pretty good chemistry all along,” he said, “It’s just that we had adjustments we had to make learning how to play together to make the plays we had to make.”

Hamilton noted adjustments such as moving Okaro White away from the small forward because “it wasn’t working.” He discussed how there was a learning period for Xavier Gibson as he went from center to power forward.

Hamilton had a laundry list of transitions as he continued.  He noted how Luke Loucks, who found Snaer for the game-winner, went from playing 12 minutes to being the Florida State starting point guard. He also noted how Deividas Dulkys, who a week earlier torched North Carolina for eight three-pointers in a 90-57 rout, wasn’t shooting the ball well when the season started.  Ian Miller, who is FSU’s second-leading scorer, wasn’t available until the 11th game of the season, so he has only played in eight games.

“We have been in transtition all year long but that is part of what teams go through,” noted Hamilton, “We are finding ways and making the necessary adjustments and that’s where we are now, but here again, there is no time to make many bows.”

An eye-opening 79-59 loss at Clemson on Jan. 7 seemed to have reasserted this team.  Nothing went right as FSU could only manage 35.5% from the floor and the ‘Noles were far from Hamilton’s trademark “junkyard dog defense” as forward Bernard James alludes.  Loucks says the urgency to settle things on the reservation picked up.

“After the Clemson loss, I remember talking to the media and being at a loss for words,” Loucks noted, “I knew that the type of character guys we have it this locker room, we are not gonna get to low on lows and too high on highs.”

Loucks sounded prophetic as Florida States gutted out a 63-59 win at Virginia Tech before the massacre at North Carolina.  FSU did not trail in the games against the Hokies and Tar Heels, and didn’t trail Maryland until the 17:23 mark of the game.  This entailed 102 minutes and 37 seconds of not knowing a deficit.

“Obviously, we watch individual film with the coaches and on our own,”  explained Loucks, “A lot of those losses, we would watch over and over in our locker room to kind of remind us that we have an uphill climb here and then after the Carolina game, we had that film going and going, so film is a big part of preparation and the lows and high you have to deal with.”

James, who shoots 57.7% from the floor, leads FSU in blocks and rebounding.  He didn’t get his offensive game going until the second half on Saturday as he scored seven points in a quick flurry that helped the Seminoles finally draw even.  At that point, confidence in the adjustments, the new found chemistry, and in each other took over for the completion of what many would dub, “an unlikely ACC-hat trick” of wins over North Carolina, Maryland, and now Duke in a week.

“Right now, everyone is jubilant,” summarized Loucks, “We gotta keep pounding and keep doing the same things we have been doing to get ourselves in these spots.”

- Ken Cross

 

 

No. 4 Duke caught in a ‘Snaer’

Imagine Florida State basketball coach Leonard Hamilton as a scientist in a basketball lab.  He has a test tube that encompasses minature basketballs and each has a prescription for every appointed situation.

Hamilton and the Seminoles found the correct antidote Saturday afternoon for No. 4 Duke as leading scorer Michael Snaer nailed a three-point field goal off the right wing at the buzzer to lift the Seminoles to a 76-73 victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium.  It capped what, a month ago, might have seemed like an improbable week as FSU struggled to an 8-5 start although losses came to stiff competitors in Florida, Michigan State, Princeton, Harvard, and UConn.

Fast-forward to Jan. 21 and the Seminoles enjoyed a week where they embarrassed North Carolina, 90-57, controlled Maryland, 84-70, and now they just won on a buzzer-beater in the hallowed Cameron Indoor Stadium.

“It says that we have grown a lot but have a lot more space to grow,” Snaer said after the game, “We got it done on the road, but we still have a lot more space to grow.  I challenge my guys on the road all the time.  We haven’t really been a good road team.”

After Austin Rivers made a driving layup to tie the game at 73-73 with five seconds remaining, Florida State hurriedly inbounded the basketball to point guard Luke Loucks.  When he saw two Blue Devils run at him, he knew the possibility for a wide open shooter existed because Duke was in a scramble.  He looked to the right, distributed to Snaer, who drained the jumper off the right wing as time ran out.

It was the first buzzer-beater of Snaer’s career, but he downplayed the issue by giving all of the praise to Loucks, who found him open.  He said that he had opportunities to win games in the last seconds before, but this time, he didn’t want to let the Seminoles down.

“I was thinking about it might come down to the wire and this time, I wasn’t gonna let my team down,” Snaer explained, “I had it against UConn and Princeton and couldn’t finish it.  A lot of times, your team looks to you and finally tonight, I was able to finish it.”

Snaer had the penchant for the big shots on Saturday throughout the game. He hit a forgotten buzzer-beater off the glass at the end of the first half to cut Duke’s lead to 32-26.  In the second half before his game winner, Duke guard Andre Dawkins capped an 11-5 run with a three-pointer with 7:55 remaining, but it was Snaer who stopped the momentum on the next Seminoles possession with a lay up.

Possibly, the biggest though came with 55 seconds remaining and Duke holding a 70-69 lead.  Snaer used the dibble-drive to blow by his man and make a layup and give the ‘Noles the one point lead.

“You could just see in his eyes there at the end of the first half, and there was a couple of buckets he made when the game was going on, that he was determined to deliver,” noted Hamilton, “Sometimes those guys get in that moment, and are really focused and that is what happened to him.”

Snaer’s game-winner equated to FSU’s fifth win over Duke in Hamilton’s tenure and the second victory at Duke as FSU took a 68-67 win there in 2007.  Snaer’s focus and maturity are huge intangibles for Hamilton as he now sees his Seminoles taking shape.

“Michael is one of the hardest workers I have ever been associated with,” summarized Hamilton, “He is very focused.  He is a gym rat.  He gives his all everytime he shows up.”

-Ken Cross

 

 

 

 

St. Francis(PA) 69 FDU 63: The Numbers

Outside Rothman Center, the area's first snowfall of the season

　Teaneck, NJ – St. Francis(PA) (PA) coach Don Friday figured his team was basically in the same situation as FDU. Young and finding the conference life anything but a breeze. In the end, Friday’s group was the better for the forty minutes as they rebounded from a loss just two days earlier and defeated FDU 69-63 at Rothman Center Saturday. The Red Flash are now at .500 (4-4) in the Northeast Conference. FDU which changed its bench location, a move in virtual desperation to end a losing streak of horrific proportions which has reached 16 straight games, last Thursday is now 0-8.

The numbers and pertinent breakdown:

“We wanted to get right into it and establish ourselves the first five minutes,” Friday said. “That was important coming off our game on Thursday (a 68-50 loss at Monmouth).”

The first five Possessions

St. Francis(PA)                  FDU

1. Missed shot                  2 point FG

2. 2 point FG                    Missed shot

3. 3 point FG                   Missed shot

4.Missed shot                 Missed shot

5. Missed shot               Two free throws (fouled in transition).

Score : St. Francis 5-4 at the 17 minute mark.

Offensive Efficiency: St. Francis 100 FDU 80

.

At the 16 minute media timeout the score was knotted at seven. St. Francis did not lead but what they accomplished was the game plan objective of attacking inside and from the perimeter as well.

FDU trailed 40-28 at the half . St, Francis led, or should we say dominated, in offensive efficiency, 129-90 for a slower 31 possession first twenty minutes.

The second half saw St. Francis struggle a bit offensively. They scored only 8 field goals (after 15 the first half). The Red Flash second half efficiency was 81, while FDU improved with a 97.

The final numbers saw a 67 possession game end with the following efficiencies:

St. Francis(PA) 103

FDU 94

The Manley Numbers:

　

	Points	Efficiency
Scott Eatherton, SFPA	25	30
Anthony Ervin, SFPA	15	14
Lonnie Robinson, FDU	15	14
Briahn Smith, FDU	14	10
Mathias Seilund, FDU	12	13
Jon Taylor, SFPA	11	10

　The Manley numbers above, considered those who hit double figures in scoring. Both teams had an identical 18% turnover rate, committing a dozen turnovers each. That was a significant improvement as both teams entered the game with over 20% rates.

FDU enjoyed a 22-15% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. St. Francis shot the ball slightly better with a 54% eFG mark contrasted to 47% of the Knights.

The big difference or differences were:

Scott Eatherton. The 6-8 sophomore St. Francis forward put up game high 25 point, 11 rebound numbers. Eatherton not only posted up but cut well from high post weak side to low strong side. A mobile center, Eatherton moves extremely well without the ball.

Poise. Nursing a two possession lead the last four minutes, St. Francis ran on opportunity but put the brakes on if the numbers were not there to finish transition. That allowed them to stay in the driver’s seat in the waning moments and ultimately, get the victory.

- Ray Floriani