Eli Carter: Extraordinarily efficient against Monmouth

Rutgers got back on track and in the win column with an 81-66 victory over Monmouth at the RAC on Monday. Decided to take a tempo free look, specifically in the area of usage. Golden State of Mind had a thorough and relatively easy to understand advanced statistics primer. It was geared for NBA analysis but is very useful on the college level. The major difference is the free throw ‘multiplier’. To determine free throw attempts as possessions for the NBA,  FTA is multiplied by .44. On the college games we use the multiplier of .475.

    To determine the number of possessions by a player the formula used is as follows:

Poss = FGA + (FTA * .475) + TO

   The subtracting of offensive rebounds is not used in determining individual possessions. In a ‘usage’ sense we look at a player using the possession by attempting a field goal, three throw or committing a turnover.  In the Monmouth game we will look at three players. The respective leading scorers, Will Campbell of Monmouth and Eli Carter for Rutgers, plus Jesse Steele, who did not pace Monmouth but is having a good early season showing.

                                                     Poss.      Points

W. Campbell                                  12            13

J. Steele, MU                                 9              15

E. Carter, RU                                 21             12

To calculate Usage we will obtain the teams’ plays’. It is necessary to use the ‘plays’ in calculations to keep everything consistent. In other words to maintain validity with the formula. Usage is the percentage of the team possessions a player uses, so the same formula is utilized for individual player(s) and the team. The team ‘plays’  is arrived at the same as the players’ possession formula, eliminating the offensive rebounds as an extension of the possession. Once we have the team plays we divide the player possessions by that total.

     In the contest Monmouth had 86 plays while Rutgers checked in with 87. The Usage totals are as follows:

                                                    Usage%

W. Campbell, MU                             14

J. Steele, MU                                   17

E,. Carter, RU                                  14

Putting up 21 points and using only 14% of Rutgers’ possessions, you can see Carter was extremely efficient. The ‘go to’ player on a respective club very often uses 25-30% of the team possessions. Carter was well under that range. He  was 7 of 9 from the field, 4 of 4 on the charity stripe and committed just one turnover in 27 minutes of action. On an individual points per possession metric, the Rutgers’ freshman guard came in with a superlative 1.75.

     The kind of performance surely to make coach Mike Rice smile. And the type of performance the Rutgers mentors knows Carter is capable of on a more frequent basis.

-Ray Floriani

 

Coast-to-Coast: Thursday

In the East: A team to watch in the Northeast Conference this season is Wagner. The Seahawks won five of their first six, their best start in six years. The only loss was a competitive showing, a 12 point setback at UCONN. Among those  five wins are road triumphs at both Princeton and Penn. Next one up  is another significant test, their first conference game of the season. Danny Hurley’s club will travel into Brooklyn to face NEC defending champion and favorite LIU.

Down South: Charlotte’s Chris Braswell matched his career high scoring 22 points in the 49ers win over Wright State. Braswell has hit double figures  scoring in all four games he has played and recently surpassed the 500-rebound mark. Beside Braswell, coach Alan Major has other contributors and is developing team balance as seven different Charlotte players hit for double figures in the team’s first four games.  The Wright State game was the first of three straight  away from home. The 49ers will visit East Carolina (December 3) and Radford (December 6) before heading home to host Davidson on the tenth.

In the Heartland: Challenge Week tipped off Wednesday night with Creighton flying out to San Diego State, where Doug McDermott poured in 25 point and grabbed 12 rebounds to help the Blue Jays edge the Aztecs 85-83.

Out West: Loyola Marymount upset 6-0 St. Louis 75-68. The Billikens  had been ranked nationally, at number 25,  for the first time since the 1993-94 season. Rick Majerus’ club was wrapping up a Western swing that included the championship of the 76 Classic in Anaheim. LeRon Armstrong led the way for Loyola with a career high 22 points. Cody Ellis paced the St.Louis with 18 points, courtesy of four three pointers. Loyola Marymount, now 4-2 with victories over UCLA and St. Louis on their 2011-12 resume, will host Columbia on Friday.

-Ray Floriani

 

Pre-Season NIT: Friday Courtside Observations on an Orange Delight

Victorious Syracuse celebrates the championship

New York City- Forget the shoppers in a frenzy piling up debt to challenge the national deficit. The day following Thanksgiving meant the final games of the Pre-Season NIT at Madison Square Garden. The sales and long lines could wait. 

      The consolation between Virginia Tech and Oklahoma state saw the Cowboys get out to an 8-0 lead during those ‘first four’ minutes. Virginia Tech, a 23% TO rate club, committed turnovers the first two possessions and three of the first six. Some solid, defense, rebounding and attacking the glass soon settled the Hokies down. Those latter points have a way of atoning for the sins of turnovers.

     A fan in a white shirt, behind the Cowboy bench,  is screaming at the officials at any call against Oklahoma state. In a packed house he’s barely audible.  Here, in a  considerably less than  packed house (just over 8,000), he stands out in a most annoying fashion.

    A 2:30 game on Black Friday for the consolation. To reiterate what was stressed last week, these teams are getting after it. Come March this could be a game to determine your NCAA fate and/or seed.

          Virginia Tech hangs on for a 59-57 victory.  Looking over the game both coaches agreed Tech’s superiority on the offensive glass was the difference. The Hokies had a 22-8 edge in second chance points. They also enjoyed a 48-37% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. Dorian Finney-Smith, Tech’s 6-8 freshman forward crashed the boards with a vengeance finishing with a game high 14 boards ( 8 offensive).

    “We stressed getting after the ball all week in practice, “Virginia Tech coach Seth Greenberg said. “We worked almost to the point of needing shoulder pads and helmets.”

     Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford was pleased with his club’s competitiveness but agreed the inside play was the key. “You can’t give up 21 offensive boards and allow 30 free throws and expect to win.” The Cowboys almost did.

    The championship game score at the half was 25-24 in favor of Stanford. Regardless of the score, Syracuse and the Pac 12 representatives were engaged in a competitive  contest. One lending itself to a wealth of analysis.

    Attacking a 2-3 zone Stanford is certain not to see, in terms of quality, again this season coach Johnny Dawkins made it a point not to settle for just perimeter shots. The final 12 minutes of the half Stanford scored 7 field goals with only one trey and five coming from inside the paint. On the opposite end, Syracuse was looking to get out and put the contest in NASCAR pace. They did with a 35 possession half. The latter part of the half they were able to covert in transition until the Cardinal closed strong  just prior to intermission

     The tempo free breakdowns at halftime shows the turnover rate numbers jumping off the sheet. Stanford’s TO rate stood at 43% while Syracuse was not much better, 35%. Taking the ‘half full’ mindset, let’s chalk these figures up to tough defense rather than just porous offense.

     The first four minutes of the second half saw an increase in efficiency. Syracuse scored 13 points in 7 possessions (186 OE) while the Cardinal put up 11 in the same amount of possessions for a 157 efficiency.

     With just under seven minutes to go Stanford had an eight point lead and appeared in control. Syracuse then went into a full court press that changed the entire game. Stanford struggled to break it, committed a few costly turnovers and the opportunistic Orange converted on the offensive end. The result saw a Syracuse rally that got the pro-Orange crowd involved. With the Syracuse faithful ‘roaring’ in approval, the Syracuse players were energized for the crunch time run.

     Not only were the Syracuse partisans involved but senior forward Kris Joseph began an offensive run down the stretch which contributed greatly to that rally.

    Syracuse pulled out a significant 69-63 victory to capture the Pre-Season NIT title.

    In retrospect: Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins praised Syracuse’s Joseph who he said,” played good defense but made some big shots in the stretch. And a  lot of those he was defended on.”

     Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim felt the two days presented similar challenges. “We had two teams *(Virginia Tech in the semis and Stanford) who use the clock, moved the ball well, have a few good shooters, all these things we will see this year.”  The Syracuse mentor did admit, his offense needs work. “We played 40 minutes of great defense today,” he said, “and 35 minutes of horrendous offense.” Those last five minutes were just enough to give Syracuse the championship.

Most Outstanding Player: Kris Joseph, Syracuse (game high 18 points in final)

All-Tournament:

Dion Waiters, Syracuse  (10 points 3 steals in final)

C.J. Fair, Syracuse ((10 points 5 rebounds in final)

Aaron Bright, Stanford  (Paced Cardinal with 13 points in the final)

Erick Green, Virginia Tech (18 points in the consolation)

- Ray Floriani

 

Coast-to-Coast: Thanksgiving Thursday

In the South: NC State earned a split at the Ticketcity Legends Classic at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, NJ. The Wolfpack dropped a semifinal contest to Vanderbilt before defeating Texas in the consolation. The Texas game saw NC State battle back from an 18 point deficit to post the 77-74 victory. C.J. Leslie, State’s 6-8 sophomore forward, came off his three game suspension to excel both nights and earn All-Tournament accolades. Leslie paced the Pack with 17 points in the consolation game victory.

In the Heartland: Illinois State earned a date with Illinois with a 76-70 victory over Rutgers in the Cancun Challenge in Mexico. The Redbirds received a career high 21 point performance from John Wilkins. The 6-9 junior, listed as a guard, also added 10 rebounds. Freshman guard Nic Moore added eight points down the stretch that proved decisive. The meeting with Illinois, to decide the championship, will mark only the eighth time the schools have met in men’s basketball. The last meeting was January 2004. The schools are 53 miles from each other but have traveled over 2,900 miles to eventually face each other.

In the East: Following an opening round heartbreaker against Purdue, the Iona Gaels rebounded to defeat Western Michigan and Maryland in the 5-Hour Energy Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Individually, Scott Machado had an outstanding tournament for Iona. The senior guard posted three double-doubles, averaging 15.3 points and 13.7 assists per game. Machado shot 51.5% from the field and had just 6 turnovers for the three contests. In the win over Maryland, Machado handed out 15 assists and did not commit a turnover.

In the West: UCLA is not the only team in Los Angeles trying to find its way.  A young USC team snapped a three game losing streak, battling back from 15 down to defeat winless Morgan State at the Galen Center on Tuesday. A key for USC was forcing 22 Morgan State turnovers. Fourteen of them came in the second half as the Trojans whittled away an eight point deficit. “We’re young,” USC coach Kevin O’Neill told the LA Times. “We’re as virgin of a team as you can have.”

Happy Thanksgiving to all

-Ray Floriani

 

Moultrie’s Garden Party Sparks Mississippi State

New York City – Arnett Moultrie had nine points, four rebounds and one assist by halftime. The Mississippi State 6-11  junior forward had one problem.  He played just five minutes due to foul trouble.

Moultrie entered the second half and stayed for the duration, sparking the Bulldogs to a 67-57 decision over Arizona in the championship game of the Coaches vs. Cancer classic.  He was selected the tournament’s Most Valuable Player.

“When I sat down (with foul trouble) I observed and cheered my teammates on,” Moultrie said. He finished with a game high 19 points while adding 10 rebounds. Moultrie shot a torrid 8 of 9 from the floor. The Bulldogs led 35-34 at intermission. With Moultrie available the final 20 minutes, they were able to pull away late and seal the verdict.

‘Moultrie was the difference in the game,” said Arizona coach Sean Miller. “The way he plays he is very difficult to deal with.”   What makes Moultrie such a special player?  “He never takes a possession off,” Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury said. “”His engine never shuts down. He rebounds yet doesn’t care who gets the shots or scores. He accepts criticism, wants it. He wants to be coached.” On this night, Moultrie was the one getting those important points and rebounds.

For Moultrie, the MVP honors, the championship all capped off a special day, his 21st birthday. “This is an amazing feeling,” Moultrie said. “To play in the Garden it is one of the biggest places you can play in. But I just wanted to do what I could to help my team.”  Mission accomplished.

Now, how would Moultrie celebrate his 21st birthday post-game? “My wife (Meo) baked three types of cookies,’ Stansbury said. “I tried all three and they are great.  He (Moultrie) will be enjoying the cookies.” A championship, MVP and home-made cookies. What a way to celebrate your 21st.

- Ray Floriani

 

Coast To Coast – Friday Edition

In The Northeast: Disturbing allegations came out on Thursday involving long-time Syracuse men’s basketball assistant Bernie Fine and a former ball boy during the youth’s association with the program back in the late 1980′s.   Fine joined Jim Boeheim’s staff in 1976 and his 35-year tenure represents the longest active streak of consecutive seasons at one school among men’s basketball assistant coaches in Division I.  In 2005, the Syracuse City Police declined to pursue the matter because the statute of limitations had expired.  They have since reopened the case.

In The South: Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports wrote an interesting piece this week following Mike Krzyzewksi’s record-setting 903rd victory on Nov. 15 at Madison Square Garden.  However, the notion of bringing coaches down off pedestals and not rolling out the red carpet for them will be difficult to do with escalating salaries of coaches and ever-increasing television exposure of college athletics.  If college presidents are willing to sign the large checks for high-profile coaches and make them the faces of their institutions while demanding instant success, how reasonable is to expect coaches not be catered to by influential alums and athletic department personnel when they are allowed to wield so much power and influence?

In The Heartland: Fans in Stillwater were overjoyed when McDonald’s All-American Le’Bryan Nash pledged his commitment to Travis Ford’s program for the 2011-12 campaign.  While signing Nash was quite a coup for OSU, Ford’s current group of freshmen could also include a dynamic point guard for the foreseeable future in Cezar Guerrero.  The Bellflower, Calif., native nearly single-handedly rallied the Cowboys to a 90-85 overtime win versus Texas-San Antonio on Nov. 16 with eight three-pointers and 29 points.

Out West: While the struggles of UCLA have been well discussed and analyzed in the very early portion of the season, the Bruins could actually be doing Utah a favor by overshadowing the less than stellar start of its newest Pac-12 rival.  The Runnin’ Utes (side note: remember when UNLV of the Tarkanian era was the only team with “Runnin” in its nickname? Now it’s nearly as common as “Wildcats” or “Bulldogs”) are at more of a stroll so far in 2011-12 after squeaking past San Diego Christian College (58-55) and dropping an 80-59 decision at Boise State on Nov. 16.  Add in a one-point loss to Adams State in their exhibition and first-year head coach Larry Krystkowiak’s team is a work in progress thus far following last season’s 13-18 campaign.

 

Kentucky-Kansas: The “Manley Numbers”

Kentucky and Kansas battle at a packed Garden

New York City – A look back on Kentucky’s impressive 75-65 decision over Kansas in the State Farm Champions Classic nightcap. The ‘Manley’ formula or efficiency rating , named after creator Martin Manley adds the good, FGM, FTM, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots and points. Subtracted are the negatives, specifically, missed free throws, missed field goals and turnovers. A breakdown from Kentucky-Kansas follows. Only players logging 10 or more minutes in this breakdown are included. Comments, if necessary, are added.

Kentucky                                                    Efficiency

Jones                                                                     21          (7 rebounds, 15 points were solid factors)

Davis                                                                      20        (7 blocked shots, 6 of 8 shooting and 6 rebounds helped the cause)

Kidd-Gilchrist                                                    17

Lamb                                                                      16        (three treys against only 1 turnover for the 17 point scorer)

Miller                                                                       7

Teague                                                                     2   (4 of 9 shooting and 6 turnovers, ouch!)

Kansas                                                          Efficiency

Taylor                                                               15    (led all scorers with 22 points but 3 of 13 from the field was a ‘Manley’ killer)

Robinson                                                         15  (12 rebounds, 11 points, 1 turnover, good numbers)

Whitley                                                             15   (Only took four shots. Hit three while grabbing 6 boards and blocking four shots)

Wesley                                                              9

Johnson                                                           6

Teahan                                                              4

Releford                                                           0  (Tough to log 28 minutes and have a goose egg to show. Five turnovers and 2 for 6 shooting will do that)

- Ray Floriani

 

State Farm Champions Classic: Sights and Sounds

Tipoff time was still two and a half hours away.  A great doubleheader at Madison Square Garden was on tap.  Waiting at the train station in Secaucus, I met two scouts for the New Jersey Nets. Remember the NBA?  There may not be a season but for behind the scenes personnel, as talent evaluators of the professional clubs, there is no stoppage. Chatting with the two scouts it is quite evident, as this doubleheader of Duke-Michigan State and Kansas-Kentucky offers a number of interesting  players to get a look at.

On the packed train (11 minutes late) a seat was available next to a fan in a Kentucky sweater.  Tim has not lost his Southern drawl even though Philadelphia is his home.  He travels far and wide to follow his beloved Wildcats.  Interestingly, he tells me, his origin was Louisville and that  his second favorite team. A UK fan with a rooting interest in Louisville?  Hopefully he doesn’t admit that among fellow Kentucky fanatics.

Getting off the Garden elevator with SI’s Seth Davis, whom I met last year. We are both impressed and puzzled. The Madison Square Garden refurbishing has extended the hallways, spruced up the paint and relocated the press area. We ask for directions twice to no avail. “You graduated from Duke so I followed you,”  I said to Davis. ‘My sense of direction is awful,” he replies. Finally we are pointed in the right direction and he spots the entrance. “Duke court awareness,” I remark.

In the press room a Michigan State student, Hillary from the school yearbook, settles into the press space next to yours truly. She proceeds to talk about how Spartan coach Tom Izzo is a ‘God’ in East Lansing yet very friendly and down to earth.

On the floor players are warming up. The Garden floor and seating area that was worked on over the summer looks outstanding. Spoke with Duke assistant Chris Collins who said the Blue Devils were concerned with Michigan State’s physicality. “They got 20 offensive boards against North Carolina,” Collins said. “They go to the glass hard but the biggest things you have to do is execute against their defense and match their intensity for 40 minutes.”

Game time was an hour away and the stories were already ‘flowing’.

- Ray Floriani

 

Surprise in the Desert

     Well that didn’t take  so long. The college game with its well chronicled surprises and upsets already has  provided us with one to savor. Seattle Pacific 69 Arizona 68. The exhibition played last night at Arizona’s Lute Olson Court served proof to Wildcat coach Sean Miller that his club needs work. The efficiency showed Seattle Pacific with a 111 on the offensive end while Arizona registered a 101 in the same category. Kenpom.com tells us last season the Wildcats had a 117 adjusted offensive efficiency and a defensive mark of  94.  Both outstanding numbers but nothing close to the 40 minutes against the visitors from the Northwest. Another area of concern for Miller is the offensive glass. Seattle Pacific held a 42-24% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. No, Derrick Williams doesn’t play here anymore.

        A further tempo free look shows us the pace was not decidedly slower than normal for the Wildcats. They managed 67 possessions , one more than last season’s average. So they were not slowed down into a walk it up the floor affair. A positive saw them force Seattle into a 27% turnover rate. But allowing th visitors to shoot 26 of 49 (53%) from the field (including 5 of 15 from three)  , offset any advantages those forced turnovers could have provided. Wildcats did get a good showing out of Nick Johnson. The freshman guard led the way with 18 points. Seattle Pacific’s Jobi Wall paced all scorers with 24.

     What does this prove ? Forget the prophets of doom with their sandwich boards. The end is not near for Arizona. The regular season has yet to tip off. All this means is Seattle Pacific has a nice club (can print up some commemorative t-shirts) and Arizona has things to work on. No need for the Wildcats nor their faithful to panic. Remember LeMoyne-Syracuse two years ago.  The season is a long building process. One thing you CAN be certain about after a game like this, when Miller goes back to practice, if he didn’t before,  he will now have everyone’s undivided attention.

-Ray Floriani

 

Coast-to-Coast – Friday Edition

In The Northeast: Connecticut has received the majority of the media focus following the NCAA’s announcement regarding raising the APR average and postseason bans for teams that do not meet the required guidelines.  However, the Huskies are certainly not the only high profile program that could be facing a postseason ban in 2012-13 without doing some major work in the classroom.  If national bracketologists like Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm Andy Glockner didn’t already have enough data to sort thru when predicting the Field of 68, they may also need to list APR averages along with SOS and RPI.

In The Southeast: Looks like the ACC’s quick strike to add Pitt and Syracuse last month was fast enough that divisional alignment of the new-look league wasn’t hashed out ahead of time.  One suggestion: move Miami (Fla.) in with Va. Tech, UVA, Pitt, Cuse, BC and Maryland. This allows you to keep UNC and Duke together with in-state rivals Wake and NC State, while Va. Tech and FSU remain in separate divisions in football.  No ACC school is busing to Miami anyway; it makes sense to match the Canes with the northern members rather than separate the North Carolina faction.

In The Heartland: The teams at the top of the Summit League in 2011-12 will make some noise in non-conference play.  Defending champion Oakland, league-favorite Oral Roberts and South Dakota State – led by one of the nation’s best-kept secrets in junior guard Nate Wolters – will provide the Summit with one of the more highly contested conference races in the country.  Oral Roberts announced this week it is leaving for the Southland Conference beginning in 2012-13.  Head coach Sean Sutton will now have even more of an opportunity to recruit in Texas as the Southland boasts four members from the state of Texas (Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State, Lamar and Texas A & M Corpus-Christi).

Out West: One of the biggest winners in the conference realignment could be a conference that does not even sponsor football.  The profile of the WCC has grown tremendously in the past 10 years with the rise of Gonzaga and St. Mary’s on the national level and the improvement of programs such as San Francisco and Santa Clara, among others.  However, the addition of BYU could give the WCC three NCAA teams in 2011-12 and place the league firmly in the conversation with the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West as the best non-BCS conference.  In the continuing conference rankings series done by Jeff Goodman at CBS Sports, the WCC is rated the No. 7 league in the nation for 2011-12.